Author: Stacy Carlson

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain

My name is Jay Ferguson and I am one of the owners of the real estate division of Taylor Made Deep Creek Vacations & Sales. I am entering my 19^th year in the real estate business here in Garrett County and at Deep Creek Lake. If you are interested, you can click here find out more about me personally and my background.

I will be writing a monthly blog post about our local real estate market, sharing & interpreting statistics and offering some insights into the market as a whole…as I see it. These are my personal thoughts and musings about the market in general and are not intended as anything more specific. And, to be clear, I am an optimistic, glass half-full kind of guy.  

Lastly, every stat I reference is based on the official stats published by Bright MLS on or around the 15^th of each month. My plan is to give you straightforward stats coupled with my analysis from the front lines and let you interpret what you read in your own way. Contact me for a candid conversation about the real estate market and how it may apply to your situation.

Greetings from the snow covered paradise that is Deep Creek Lake! We have had an incredible winter, perhaps the best in 10 years. There is plenty of snow on the ground and I think the last time I saw grass in my yard was late December. The ski resort is thriving and seems to be running at max occupancy, certainly on the weekends. It’s common to see people looking for skiing & tubing tickets on Facebook, as the Wisp has sold out most weekend days. Our restaurants and most local businesses seem to be running strong, as well. State parks and trails are filled with people who want to enjoy the winter vibe and the fresh air. Locals are out in all their glory riding snowmobiles on the lake, sled riding and ice fishing. Parents are growing weary of the many trips to and from the ski area, dropping off and picking up our kids (and all of their friends) after virtual school lets out at 12pm each weekday. It’s a labor of love, so the burden is light! These are all incredible signs for the economy in our beloved Garrett County.

The real estate market is no different. The market remains hot in spite of the freezing temperatures. Inventory is the lowest I have seen in my 21 years of real estate sales. Sellers have a tremendous amount of leverage and often have 3 or 4 different offers to choose from. Often times, this flurry of activity occurs in the first few days of being on the market. It can be frustrating to miss out on homes, but our team at Taylor Made has been successful in many multiple offer situations and have excellent strategies that can be applied in almost every situation. If you want an outside of the box approach to successful offers, give me a call or drop me an email. Now on to the stats:

-There were 51 new listings in January 2021. Remarkably, this number was way up from December 2020 (70%). That’s also lot higher (24.4%) than in January 2020.

-Pending sales (homes that went under contract) were up 48.8% when compared to last month. Up 35.6% from last year.

-Closed sales (homes that actually sold) were up 14.7% when compared to last year and down 40% from Dec 2020. There is always a lull around the holidays and those transactions get pushed to the new year.

-The total number of active listings dropped each and every month through 2020. We normally have 300~ homes for sale in January/mid winter. We ended January 2021 with 84 active listings for sale. As I type this, its down to 80 homes for sale.

-The average sold to original listing price (OLP) ratio was 96.4%, this is up 5% from December and up nearly 6% from January 2020.

-The median sold price was up 1% versus December 2020 but is a whopping 59.5% higher than January 2020.

-The average days on market (DOM) dropped to 91 DOM versus 164 last year. This is down from 113 last month.

The bottom line – it’s a crazy time to buy right now. Everybody wants to be here in majestic mountain Maryland. There are so many buyers sitting on the sidelines right now, just waiting for the right property to pop up on their radar, there will continue to be bidding wars for the foreseeable future.

Buyers, if you are tired of missing out on these homes, give me a call. I would love to talk strategy with you and help you WIN when it matters most.

Conversely, if you are thinking of selling, there has never been a better time in terms of low inventory. Several of the past few homes I have listed went under contract at full or above asking price within days – sometimes hours! Reach out for more info and I can make your transaction smooth and successful!

Questions about the market? Whether you are buying or selling, I can put my experience to work for you! Contact me anytime for a free market analysis of any property you may be interested in purchasing or selling!

Jay Ferguson

Co-Owner

Associate Broker

301-501-0420 – cell

jay@deepcreekvacations.com

www.iLoveDeepCreek.com

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain

My name is Jay Ferguson and I am one of the owners of the real estate division of Taylor Made Deep Creek Vacations & Sales. I am entering my 19^th year in the real estate business here in Garrett County and at Deep Creek Lake. If you are interested, you can click here find out more about me personally and my background.

I will be writing a monthly blog post about our local real estate market, sharing & interpreting statistics and offering some insights into the market as a whole…as I see it. These are my personal thoughts and musings about the market in general and are not intended as anything more specific. And, to be clear, I am an optimistic, glass half-full kind of guy.  

Lastly, every stat I reference is based on the official stats published by Bright MLS on or around the 15^th of each month. My plan is to give you straightforward stats coupled with my analysis from the front lines and let you interpret what you read in your own way.

2020 was a crazy year for a lot of different reasons. The real estate market in Garrett County & at Deep Creek Lake was radically affected by the adverse conditions affecting us all. Our area grew substantially and our market quite literally transformed. We didn’t add any factories or huge commercial enterprises to fuel this growth and create jobs. Nothing really changed, in fact. People just wanted to be here and I believe the rural aspects of our area were more attractive alternatives. We’ll start with the year over year comparison, as you can see below (2020 versus 2019). There are lots of stats you can drill down in to, but I am focusing on 2 overwhelming numbers:

69% – The % change in sold dollar volume increase year over year.

26% – The % change in average sold price increase year over year.

The long and short of it is this – nearly 1/3 of a billion dollars transferred in 2020. Even homes that I previously thought were over-priced or had ‘issues’ sold. Demand was through the roof and still is. Prices, in turn, shot up dramatically. It is clearly a sellers market and inventory is low. As I type this, there are only 91 homes in the entire county available for sale. There are 8 lakefront homes/condos for sale. Pickings are slim, at the moment. Below, you can see the specifics on everything that sold. Below this chart, I will jump into the December 2020 month/month numbers.

Lake access lots were recently listed with Taylor-Made by Garrett County Habitat for Humanity. They were generously donated to Habitat and proceeds of the sale benefit the organization minus tax and buyer agency coop commission. Our sales team has represented them several times over the years, and we are happy to donate our services to such a worthy organization. Taylor-Made will not take a commission. Our sister company, Lake Title, will also handle the settlement at cost. 

Jay Ferguson is a Habitat for Humanity board member as well as a sales agent and co-owner of Taylor-Made’s real estate division. He is overseeing the sale along with Bryan Chaney and Autumn McDaniel.

About the 5 Lake Access Lots

Located just off Glendale Road, the lots are located in the Meadow Mountain Run community. This neighborhood is a nature lover’s dream! It has seven acres of common area along with a community dock for non-motorized boats. The parklike setting has stunning natural features including ferns, boulders, trees, and streams. At the lake access area, you can canoe, kayak, fish, or simply enjoy the view. Plus, you are within less than 1.5 miles from Deep Creek Lake State Park.

Michelle Drive, Lot #10
3.62 Acres, Listed at $29,900

Michelle Drive, Lot #12
1.51 Acres, Listed at $29,900

Real estate market conditions are affected by a wide variety of factors. Despite the difficulties presented by the pandemic, the market was strong nationally and in the Deep Creek Lake area.

While we don’t have a crystal ball that shows the future with certainty, we do have some real estate market predictions for 2021 courtesy of Realty Biz News.

2021 Real Estate Market Predictions from Realty Biz News

The U.S. economy will see recovery in 2021. The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” After reviewing factors that indicate a recession, the data suggests that 2021 will generally see positive increases in the economy.

Buyer demand will continue to grow. With the return of economic stability and increases in personal incomes, the number of first-time home buyers will rise. This will create more competition for desirable homes and upward trends in home prices. 

Positive factors that fuel demand include continued population growth, rebounding personal income rates, and improving consumer confidence. President-Elect Joe Biden has proposed a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, which, if passed, will further spur buyer demand.

Mortgage interest rates will remain low. The National Association of Realtors expects that 30-year, fixed mortgage rates will remain stable or slightly increase in 2021 from the 50-year low of 2.71% in 2020.

Housing supply will lag. As sellers become more comfortable opening their homes to buyers, there will be a rise in available listings. However, new home construction is expected to be restrained due to “a shortage of lots, labor and building materials,” according to National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chairman Chuck Fowke. Affordability and the gap in the cost of living across the U.S. will continue to be a problem, especially in areas where housing is in high demand and fewer new homes are being built.

Home buyers will move to the suburbs. The long standing trend of moving from rural areas to the city is changing. More people are leaving cities due to high costs and aging infrastructure. Additionally, the pandemic provided the ability for many people to work from home. More people are retreating to suburbs and rural areas, something that will likely continue in 2021.

House size will continue to grow. The average single-family home size in America almost doubled in the last century to more than 2,430 square feet in 2020, even as the average number of people living in a house fell from 4.54 people to 2.58 people. On the other hand, the typical rental unit size in a metropolitan area shrank by 5%, though rents increased by 28%. These dynamics drive the appeal of suburban and rural residence for city dwellers. Another factor of the growth of house sizes is the possibility of making more profit on a home sale.

Technology access and use will be necessary home features. Advances in technology have changed the ways Americans work, play, learn, and communicate. Houses in neighborhoods or areas that lack access to high-speed internet are increasingly avoided by new home buyers. 

Buying and selling a home traditionally requires significant physical effort, time, and expense to locate potential candidates, negotiate transaction terms, and process closings. Today’s home buyers and sellers have access to extensive information about city and neighborhood demographic information, specific houses for sale, and market prices without leaving their homes.